RETAIL DIESEL US$5.64/gal+0.08HENRY HUB$2.83-0.04WAHA HUB YTD-$1.84NEGATIVEBRENT$106.20+1.10DGE FEEDSTOCK$0.38HORMUZCLOSED (DAY 81)LNG DELIVERED$1.05-1.20/DGESPREAD vs DIESEL4.8×CA REFINING LOST-554,000 bpdRETAIL DIESEL US$5.64/gal+0.08HENRY HUB$2.83-0.04WAHA HUB YTD-$1.84NEGATIVEBRENT$106.20+1.10DGE FEEDSTOCK$0.38HORMUZCLOSED (DAY 81)LNG DELIVERED$1.05-1.20/DGESPREAD vs DIESEL4.8×CA REFINING LOST-554,000 bpd
DASHBOARD · MARKET INTELLIGENCE

The numbers that break the diesel system.

Real-time pricing across the diesel-LNG spread, geopolitical risk indicators, and the weekly LNGBridgeAI intelligence brief. Updated continuously.
RETAIL DIESEL · US● LIVE
$5.64
/ gallon · EIA weekly
+$0.08 wk · +$0.41 90d
HENRY HUB SPOT● LIVE
$2.83
/ MMBtu
−$0.04 wk · +$0.12 90d
WAHA HUB · YTD AVG● LIVE
−$1.84
/ MMBtu · negative pricing
Record low: −$9.50 (Apr '26)
BRENT CRUDE● LIVE
$106.20
/ barrel · ICE prompt
+$1.10 wk · +$18 90d

The spread that changes the math

$0$1$2$3$4$5$6JUN 24SEP 24DEC 24MAR 25JUN 25SEP 25DEC 25MAR 26MAY 26HORMUZ ↓DIESEL $5.64LNG $1.12
DIESEL $5.64 → $7+ forecast · LNG $1.05–1.20 delivered · WIDENING since Hormuz close Feb 28

Probability of return to cheap diesel

Diesel < $4.50 by Q4 26
8%
Diesel < $4.50 by Q2 27
15%
Hormuz 100% flow Q4 26
12%
Hormuz 100% flow Q4 27
45%
CA refining recovery 24mo
5%
LNGBRIDGEAI HOUSE VIEW · UPDATED WEEKLY

This week’s signal

MAY 19
LAUNCHLNGBridgeAI goes public. LinkedIn series begins. Post 1: "The war is dragging on and there's no clean exit." 450 impressions in first 30 minutes across four industry groups.
MAY 17
WAHAPermian gas prices revisit negative territory for the third consecutive week. Operators paying $1.10–$3.20/MMBtu to dispose of associated gas they can't move. Takeaway capacity remains the binding constraint through 2026.
MAY 14
FLEETSUPS publishes Year 1 X15N performance data. Cumulative fuel cost reduction 71% vs comparable diesel tractors on equivalent duty cycles. Reliability "on par" with diesel after 14 months. Cummins now booking '27 production with three additional fleet customers under MOU.
MAY 12
HORMUZDay 73 of Strait closure. Insurance markets pricing 6-12 month minimum to restore 100% flow even under most optimistic ceasefire scenarios. Brent backwardation widens. US distillate stocks at 5-year lows.
MAY 09
REFININGValero Benicia closure now confirmed permanent. 145,000 bpd California refining capacity offline. Brings cumulative CA loss since 2020 to 554,000 bpd. PADD V distillate balance tightens further into summer driving season.